A decade has passed since German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a declaration that would define her legacy and reshape her nation: 'Wir schaffen das' ('We can do it'). This statement opened Germany’s doors to millions of refugees, primarily from conflict zones in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq.
Today, as the country reflects on this momentous decision, the initial spirit of welcome has become fractured, replaced by a complex and often contradictory national mood. A new study from the German Institute for Economic Research starkly illustrates this shift:
In 2017, 84% of migrants reported feeling welcome; by 2023, that figure had fallen to 65%.
This significant drop serves as a quantitative measure of a deeply felt societal transformation.
The 2015 Shift: From Open Arms to Rising Tensions
The scenes from 2015 portrayed a Germany of open arms and open hearts. The government’s decision was met with a significant outpouring of public support, and more people applied for political asylum that year than ever before.
Here's an illustration of the initial welcome:
However, the atmosphere has since evolved into one of rising tensions and closed doors. Some Germans now express feelings of being overwhelmed, afraid, or even hostile.
"We've been dealing with refugees for 10 years. That's enough," one citizen commented, reflecting a sentiment that has gained political traction.
This change in public mood has directly fuelled a political realignment. Support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has surged, with the party now securing one in five votes. The AfD, which polled in the low single digits before 2015, found in the refugee issue a powerful catalyst for its growth. Violent crimes linked to refugees, though statistically complex, have heightened tensions and raised the political stakes, creating a difficult environment for nuanced policy discussions.
The Dual Reality: Economic Necessity and Social Strain
Germany’s situation is a paradox. The nation faces an acute labour shortage and requires steady migration to sustain its economy, yet it struggles with the social and political integration of its new populations. The economic argument for migration is compelling.
Today, approximately 3.5 million refugees live in Germany, and the majority of those who arrived in 2015 have successfully entered the workforce. Their employment rate is now comparable to that of the general German population.
As Chief Political Editor Michaela Huffner noted, "If you walk into a hospital today, it is very unlikely you walk into one where there is not at least one Syrian doctor."
These newcomers have helped keep the German system running. Success stories abound, such as families who fled war-torn Syria and have since become German citizens. For many, this achievement is the ultimate goal.
"We've done everything that we should have done. And because of that, we made it," stated one new citizen.
Yet, those working on the ground argue that much more is needed to reduce tensions and foster genuine community integration.
A retired policeman engaged in community work observed, "I think some politicians are not aware of what needs to be done on the ground."
Here's an image depicting the diverse workforce in Germany today:
A Policy in Retrospect: Rationale and Reversal
Former Chancellor Merkel remains resolute, expressing no regrets over her 2015 decision. She acknowledges its consequences but defends her rationale.
"The fact that I did this has polarized people, has led them to join the AfD... And the AfD has certainly become stronger as a result," she reflected recently. "But is that a reason for me not to make a decision that I think is important, that I think is right, that I thought was reasonable at the time, that I thought was humane?"
Her successors, however, have taken a different path. The current conservative government, led by figures from Merkel's own CDU party like Friedrich Merz, has overseen a significant policy reversal. Asylum laws were tightened shortly after 2015, and today, people are being turned away at the border. This new, stricter approach signals a belief within the current leadership that Germany, in many ways, did not succeed in its initial ambition. The policy shift itself remains contentious and has faced legal challenges.
The Unresolved Question: A Nation at a Crossroads
Ten years on, the question of whether Germany "did it" remains a matter of perspective—a glass half-full or half-empty. The nation successfully managed a logistical and humanitarian challenge of immense scale. It also gained needed workers who are contributing to its economy. Simultaneously, the decision has created deep societal divisions and empowered a far-right political movement that continues to grow, particularly in the country's east.
Germany is still navigating the consequences of 2015, both politically and socially. Recent debates over new EU asylum policies, which Germany is actively involved in shaping, underscore the ongoing nature of this challenge. As regional elections approach next year, the debate over migration will undoubtedly remain a central, defining issue. The German experience is not unique; it is a powerful case study in a challenge that is being confronted across Europe and around the world, making its lessons all the more critical.
What are your thoughts on Germany's journey since 2015? Share your perspective in the comments below.
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