Political Analysis and Global Affairs

  Pakistan’s debt debate often focuses on the IMF, but the larger domestic story sits inside the banking system, where government borrowing competes with private-sector credit. I have spent enough years around banking to know that risk never looks the same from both sides of a desk. A businessman walks into a Pakistani bank asking for money to expand a factory. He may need new machinery. Perhaps cash is tight because customers pay slowly while electricity bills arrive on time. The bank studies his accounts and collateral, then asks the question that matters most: will this business generate enough money when the loan falls due? Another borrower enters the same financial system under very different conditions. The Government of Pakistan. It can issue Treasury bills and Pakistan Investment Bonds on a scale no private company can match. Banks understand these instruments. A market already exists for them, and the credit calculation looks very different from financing an exporter whose...

Pakistan keeps becoming strategically important, but its institutions struggle to convert geopolitical value into permanent economic strength. The Makkah defence agreement reflects Pakistan’s rising geopolitical value, while continuing IMF obligations expose a harder challenge: converting strategic importance into lasting economic and institutional power.  A few days ago, I placed two documents beside each other on my screen in Karachi. One concerned the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement linking Pakistan with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. The other came from the IMF and showed Pakistan still carrying billions of SDRs in outstanding Fund credit. Pakistan's Conversion Gap appeared in the space between them. The documents measure different things. I would never use IMF borrowing to deny Pakistan's military capability, nor does a defence agreement tell me whether an economy can finance itself. Their coexistence raises a harder question: why has Pakistan repeatedly acquired extraordinary...

  Pakistan’s strategic paradox: Defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye and renewed military relevance have increased Pakistan’s geopolitical weight, but economic weakness and institutional constraints raise a harder question: can Pakistan convert strategic importance into lasting national power A few days ago, I was reading a discussion about Pakistan's growing military importance when one comment stopped me. The conversation had moved quickly from Pakistan's performance against India in May 2025 to the new Saudi Arabia-Türkiye-Pakistan defence relationship. Then a reader asked a less comfortable question: what good is all this external importance if Pakistan remains weak inside? I looked away from the screen for a moment. Karachi outside offered its usual contradiction, a huge commercial city pushing ahead despite expensive electricity, broken infrastructure and the daily friction that businesses learn to absorb. Pakistan can matter enormously on a strategic map w...

  Pakistan’s economic stability looks better than it did a year ago. Inflation is falling. The current account has improved. The rupee is calmer. Foreign exchange reserves are no longer at crisis levels. On paper, the emergency has passed. But stability built on weak demand is not recovery. It is compression. The numbers are improving because the economy has slowed down sharply. People are spending less. Businesses are borrowing less. Imports have fallen because economic activity itself has fallen. The system looks stable because it is under pressure. The Current Account Improvement: A Closer Look Pakistan’s current account deficit has narrowed significantly. That is one of the strongest indicators of external stability. The reason, however, matters. Imports have dropped because: High interest rates reduced business expansion Currency depreciation made foreign goods expensive Household purchasing power weakened Consumer demand for durable goods collapsed Exports have not surged dra...

 پاکستان انٹرنیشنل ایئرلائنز کا ذکر آتے ہی گفتگو عموماً جذباتی رخ اختیار کر لیتی ہے۔ قومی وقار، سبز دم والا جہاز، ماضی کی شان، یا پھر نجکاری کے حق اور مخالفت میں نعرے۔ مگر ایک بنیادی سوال ہے جس سے سب بچتے ہیں: پی آئی اے آخر تباہ کیوں ہوئی؟ یہ زوال کسی ایک فیصلے، کسی ایک حادثے، یا کسی ایک حکومت کا نتیجہ نہیں۔ پی آئی اے اچانک نہیں گری۔ اسے برسوں میں آہستہ آہستہ کمزور کیا گیا۔ ادارہ نہیں، سیاسی پارکنگ پی آئی اے کو ایک پیشہ ور ادارہ ہونا چاہیے تھا، مگر رفتہ رفتہ یہ سیاسی نوازشات کی جگہ بن گئی۔ ہر حکومت آئی، اپنے لوگوں کو کھپایا۔ ضرورت سے کہیں زیادہ بھرتیاں ہوئیں۔ ایسے شعبوں میں عملہ رکھا گیا جہاں پہلے ہی گنجائش ختم ہو چکی تھی۔ کاغذوں میں ہزاروں ملازمین، مگر کارکردگی مسلسل گرتی چلی گئی۔ دنیا کی کامیاب ایئرلائنز میں ایک جہاز کے لیے محدود اور تربیت یافتہ عملہ ہوتا ہے۔ پی آئی اے میں ایک جہاز پر کئی گنا زیادہ لوگ۔ اخراجات بڑھتے گئے، آمدن وہیں کی وہیں رہی۔ کاروباری منطق کے بجائے اثر و رسوخ پروازوں کے روٹس مسافروں کی مانگ یا مالی فائدے کی بنیاد پر نہیں بلکہ اثر و رسوخ پر طے ہوتے رہے...

  قارئین کے لیے وضاحت یہ تحریر ایک سابق ریگولیٹر کے دلائل کا تجزیہ ہے۔ اس میں کوئی مذہبی فتویٰ یا عقیدے کا فیصلہ شامل نہیں۔ مقصد صرف فکری اور معاشی جائزہ ہے اخلاقی مالیات کا فریب؟ جب اسلامی بینکاری اسلامی دکھائی دے، مگر ویسی کام نہ کرے تقریباً پچیس برس تک پرویز سعید اسلامی بینکاری کے ناقد نہیں تھے۔ وہ اس نظام کے معماروں میں شامل تھے۔ انہوں نے اس شعبے میں کام کیا، اس کے قواعد بنانے میں حصہ لیا، اور اسٹیٹ بینک آف پاکستان میں اسلامی بینکاری کے ڈائریکٹر کے عہدے تک پہنچے۔ یہ کوئی باہر بیٹھا شخص نہیں تھا جو تنقید کر رہا ہو۔ یہ وہ شخص تھا جس نے خود یہ عمارت کھڑی کی تھی۔ اسی لیے ان کا حالیہ مؤقف بہت سے لوگوں کو بے چین کر دیتا ہے۔ سعید یہ نہیں کہتے کہ مسلمانوں کو دین چھوڑ دینا چاہیے یا مالی نظام کو سیکولر ہونا چاہیے۔ ان کی بات اس سے کہیں زیادہ تکلیف دہ ہے۔ وہ یہ سوال اٹھاتے ہیں کہ جو چیز آج اسلامی بینکاری کے نام سے پیش کی جا رہی ہے، کیا وہ واقعی اس اخلاقی معیار پر پوری اترتی ہے جس کا دعویٰ کیا جاتا ہے؟ یہ جملہ ہی بہت سوں کو ناگوار گزرتا ہے۔ شاید جانا بھی چاہیے۔ رِبا، سود اور ایک ایسا سوا...

  The Illusion of Ethical Finance? When Islamic Banking Looks Islamic but Behaves Otherwise For nearly twenty-five years, Pervez Saeed was not a critic of Islamic banking. He was one of its architects. He worked inside the system, helped shape its rules, and rose to the post of Director of Islamic Banking at the State Bank of Pakistan. This was not a man throwing stones from the outside. This was someone who built the house. Which is why his recent argument unsettles so many people. Saeed does not say that Muslims should abandon faith or that finance must be secular. His claim is more uncomfortable than that. He argues that what is marketed as Islamic banking today may fail the very ethical test it claims to pass . That sentence alone makes people uneasy. It should. Riba, Interest, and a Question Nobody Wants to Touch The heart of Saeed’s critique lies in a distinction most of us were taught not to question. Riba is forbidden. Interest is riba. End of discussion. Saeed say...

 Every few years, Pakistan tries the same medicine for its ailing exports — let the rupee fall, make our goods cheaper abroad, and hope dollars will rush in. But this time (and the last time, and the time before that), it didn’t work. Despite the rupee’s value dropping nearly 190% in a decade, exports remain stubbornly stuck. Factories are quieter than they should be. Exporters, instead of celebrating, are barely hanging on. It’s not just bad luck or global headwinds. It’s a system built upside down. Let’s break this down — not in theories, but in three very human patterns that explain why Pakistan keeps missing its moment. Type 1: The Cost Trap — When Making Costs More Than Selling Here’s the cruel irony. You’d think a weaker rupee makes exports cheaper and more competitive. But in Pakistan, the opposite happens. Factories here depend on imported materials — oil, dyes, chemicals, machinery. When the rupee falls, these imports become painfully expensive. So the cost of product...

  Every monsoon, Karachi becomes a city under water. Streets vanish into brown rivers, power goes out, and families wade through waist-high water just to reach work or school. This is not new. It has been happening for decades. Yet, despite ruling Sindh almost continuously since 2008, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has failed to provide the country’s biggest city—and its economic engine—with the basic infrastructure it desperately needs. Why Has PPP Neglected Karachi? 1. Rural vs. Urban Power Base PPP’s vote bank lies in rural Sindh. Karachi, with its diverse mix of ethnic and political loyalties, has rarely been a PPP stronghold. The political calculus is simple: invest where votes are secure, not necessarily where revenue comes from. 2. Tug-of-War in Governance Karachi’s institutions—KMC, KDA, water boards—often clash with provincial authorities. Local governments, historically controlled by MQM or other rivals, are undermined by PPP. The result is confusion, duplication,...