Imagine a long-running family reunion that never actually happens. That’s been the fate of SAARC – the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation – a once-promising “club” of countries that hasn’t met in years. Why? Mainly because two big members, India and Pakistan, haven’t been on talking terms. Frustrated by the deadlock, Pakistan (with an eager China by its side) is quietly working on a new regional bloc to fill the voidbusinesstoday.in. This fresh alliance would focus on boosting trade and connectivity among South Asian nations – but notably without India as the center player. In a region that’s among the least integrated in the world (only about 5% of its trade is within the neighborhood)thediplomat.com, this development could shake things up. Let’s break down what’s happening in this geopolitical shuffle, in plain language, as if we’re chatting over a cup of chai.
SAARC on Ice: A Club That Stopped Meeting
It helps to know why SAARC became a zombie forum in the first place. Founded in the 1980s with great hopes of regional unity, SAARC brought India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, the Maldives, and later Afghanistan together under one tent. In theory, they’d cooperate on trade, development, even cultural exchange. In practice? Not so much. SAARC decisions require consensus (everyone agreeing), and the bitter rivalry between India and Pakistan meant nothing major got donethediplomat.com. Think of two quarreling teammates dragging down the whole game. By 2016, things hit rock bottom. That year, Pakistan was set to host the big SAARC summit, but a terror attack in Indian Kashmir (which Delhi blamed on Pakistan-based militants) derailed everythingthediplomat.com. India backed out, and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Afghanistan – even Sri Lanka – quickly followed suit in boycotting the meetthediplomat.com. The summit was cancelled and no SAARC leaders’ meeting has happened since 2014thefederal.com. Essentially, SAARC has been in the deep freeze for a decade.
This paralysis has been costly. Many hoped SAARC would foster an EU-like integration in South Asia, but instead it’s “remained hostage” to India-Pakistan animositytribune.com.pk. Trade among neighbors is paltry, travel is restricted, and joint initiatives stalled. India tried some projects (a regional university, a development fund, etc.), but Pakistan blocked a few too – for instance, a plan for cross-border road connectivity in 2014businesstoday.in. In response, India and others started focusing on smaller coalitions that didn’t include Pakistan, like the BBIN group (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal corridor) and BIMSTEC (linking South Asia with Southeast Asia)businesstoday.inthediplomat.com. Those may sound like alphabet soup, but the message was clear: if SAARC couldn’t function as eight countries together, then do it without the quarrelsome parts. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan was left out of these India-led alternativesthediplomat.com. So by 2023, SAARC was effectively defunct – a club with a fancy logo and legacy, but no meetings.
Enter China (and Pakistan): “If You Won’t Join Our Party, We’ll Throw Our Own”
Here’s where the plot thickens. China has long been an observer in SAARC, eyeing South Asia’s markets and strategic position, but it’s never been a full member (India quietly nixed that idea years ago). With SAARC dormant, Beijing seems to have found another way in. Over the past few months, Pakistan and China have been scheming a new regional alliance – call it SAARC 2.0 minus India, or perhaps a South Asian club with Chinese characteristics. Diplomatic whispers say talks are at an advanced stage between Islamabad and Beijing, and both are convinced that a “new organisation is essential” for regional integration and connectivitytribune.com.pk. In other words, if the old gang can’t get along, form a new gang.
In mid-June, a quiet meeting in Kunming, China signaled that this idea is more than just gossip. Officials from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh met on June 19 in the Chinese city to discuss the contours of a new grouping focused on trade and infrastructure linksbusinesstoday.in. The goal, reportedly, is to bring in other South Asian countries too – invitations would be open to all the former SAARC members like Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, and yes, even India (at least on paper)businesstoday.intribune.com.pk. Don’t hold your breath on India actually signing up, though. Everyone and their cat knows that New Delhi is highly unlikely to join a China-backed bloc given its fraught relations with both Beijing and Islamabadbusinesstoday.in. (More on India later.) The real target members are the smaller neighbors who have been left in limbo by SAARC’s failure.
China’s motivation here isn’t purely altruistic friendship, of course. This push dovetails with Beijing’s broader strategy in the region. Remember the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)? China has spent years building ports, roads, and power plants across South Asia. All South Asian nations except India and Bhutan have signed onto BRI projects in some formthediplomat.com. Beijing has even floated its own mini-forums over the years – from a China-South Asia Cooperation Forum to a Trans-Himalayan Connectivity Network with Nepal, Pakistan, and Afghanistanthediplomat.com. In May 2025, China hosted Pakistan and Afghanistan’s foreign ministers and agreed to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghan territorythediplomat.com. So, a new multilateral bloc would give China and Pakistan another platform to align their big plans (CPEC, infrastructure financing, trade routes, you name it) outside of the defunct SAARC frameworktimesofindia.indiatimes.com. It’s like they’re building a new stage to perform on since the old stage went dark. And it sends a message: South Asia doesn’t revolve around India anymore. One Pakistani official candidly said, “The idea is to create momentum in the region, not wait indefinitely for SAARC to move.”timesofindia.indiatimes.com In short, we’re seeing a proactive attempt to rewrite the regional playbook, with China’s heft behind it.
Neighbors’ Dilemma: Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka Caught in the Middle
How are the other South Asian countries reacting to this potential new club? Cautiously, for the most part. These nations – Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka (and don’t forget the Maldives) – have the most to gain from any regional integration. They’re the ones who felt the loss when SAARC stalled, and they’ve been urging for cooperation even as the giants foughtthediplomat.com. But jumping aboard a China-led initiative while India sulks on the sidelines is a tricky game. It’s a bit like being invited to a new friend’s party when your old friend (who hates that new friend) is pointedly not going. Awkward.
Take Bangladesh. It actually sent a representative to the Kunming meeting with China and Pakistan, which raised a lot of eyebrows (especially in New Delhi)tribune.com.pk. Immediately after, Dhaka scrambled into damage control mode. Bangladesh’s foreign affairs adviser, Mr. Touhid Hossain, publicly insisted that “we are not forming any alliance.” The Kunming meet was just “at the official level, not at the political level,” he said, downplaying it as “not anything big and not something structured”timesofindia.indiatimes.com. In plainer terms: Relax, India, we’re not hopping into bed with Beijing and Islamabad. Bangladesh clearly doesn’t want to burn bridges with its huge neighbor India, with whom it shares extensive trade and a long border. Hossain even emphasized that Bangladesh’s relationship with India was just going through a “re-adjustment” phase, and there’s “no lack of goodwill” towards Delhitimesofindia.indiatimes.com. Reading between the lines, Dhaka is hedging – interested in the potential economic upside of a new regional forum, but wary of any perception that it’s betraying India. (It also doesn’t help that Bangladesh is heading for elections and can’t afford to irk any side right now.)
Sri Lanka, for its part, hasn’t made any loud statements yet – unsurprising, perhaps, as it juggles a delicate balance between big partners. Colombo has historically been friendly with China (who bankrolled big projects there) but also relies on India, which stepped up during Sri Lanka’s recent economic crisis. Still, given Sri Lanka’s dire need for investment and trade, it is very likely to welcome any new regional initiative that might spur growth. In fact, sources indicate Sri Lanka is expected to be part of the proposed groupingtribune.com.pk. The same goes for the Maldives, which under its new leadership is tilting a bit more towards China’s orbit. These smaller states see opportunity in a forum that could deliver infrastructure or market access – something SAARC promised but never delivered.
And then there’s Nepal. Landlocked between India and China, Nepal has often felt like the rope in a tug-of-war. Kathmandu has been a strong advocate for reviving SAARC – it even hosted the last summit in 2014 and has repeatedly called for dialogue to resumethediplomat.com. But those calls fell on deaf ears as India and Pakistan remained at odds. Nepal’s frustration with the status quo is real; they want regional projects (roads, railways, energy grids) to move forward. If Pakistan and China’s new bloc offers an alternate path to those goals, Nepal will surely consider it. However, Nepal also knows any overt enthusiasm could rankle India, on whom it depends for transit and trade. It’s a classic Nepali tightrope walk. We might see Kathmandu participate in exploratory talks (they share China’s interest in trans-Himalayan connectivity), but carefully – perhaps hoping India might eventually soften and join too. For now, all these neighbors are playing it cool in public. They’ll likely wait to see a concrete proposal and who else signs on before jumping fully in. After all, nobody wants to be first to ditch a decades-old club (SAARC) for a shiny new one – unless it’s clearly worth it.
India: The Elephant Outside the Room
Let’s talk about the obvious absentee in this story – India. How is India reacting to the idea of a China-Pakistan led “South Asian” bloc? Officially, Delhi hasn’t said much yet (perhaps not wanting to dignify the proposal with a response). But you can bet there’s some quiet fuming in the corridors of power. India sees itself as the natural leader in South Asia – it’s by far the largest economy and has deep historical ties across the region. Being sidelined in its own neighborhood is not a comfortable thought for New Delhibusinesstoday.inbusinesstoday.in. In fact, the whole raison d’être of SAARC originally was partly to balance India’s dominance by having everyone in one cooperative framework. If China swoops in now to create a parallel framework that pointedly includes everyone but India, that’s a geopolitical slap in the face.
To be fair, from India’s perspective, SAARC didn’t die by accident – India froze it as a deliberate policy to isolate Pakistan diplomatically for as long as Pakistan “supports cross-border terrorism,” an oft-cited grievance. Indian strategists likely knew this might open the door for China to increase its influence, but they calculated that bilateral and smaller-group ties (like BIMSTEC) could compensate. Now, with Beijing and Islamabad actively courting India’s neighbors into a new coalition, India faces a tough choice: Does it ignore the new bloc, denounce it, or try to quietly undermine it? Thus far, India has doubled down on other alliances – it’s cozying up with the U.S., Japan, Australia (the Quad) and investing in BIMSTEC for regional cooperation sans Pakistanthediplomat.com. Prime Minister Modi even skipped recent meetings of the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)tribune.com.pk, signaling India’s discomfort in forums where it feels outnumbered by China’s friends. So likely, India will shrug publicly and say, “Well, good luck forming a club without us.” Privately though, Indian officials worry that their neighbors getting too financially tangled with China (via a new bloc projects) could erode India’s clout over time. It’s a soft power battle: highways and rail lines can translate to influence.
New Delhi also knows one thing: geography still gives India a trump card. All South Asian countries (barring Pakistan and Afghanistan) rely on access through India to reach each other. You can’t drive a truck from Bangladesh to Nepal or Sri Lanka without going through Indian territory or waters. That means any new bloc that excludes India might struggle to physically connect its members – unless China invests in some extremely ambitious (and costly) workarounds, like mountain tunnels or port-to-port shipping networks. In other words, India might be thinking: “Sure, have your meetings and MoUs. But good luck building a real supply chain that circumvents us.” This could be a key limitation of the China-Pakistan plan, and Indian analysts are quick to point it out. Will China pour in enough money to make alternate connectivity a reality? Or will this new bloc remain a talk shop if India doesn’t play along? These are open questions.
A New Bloc: Game-Changer or Pipe Dream?
So, is this Pakistan-China “SAARC 2.0” going to fly or flop? At this stage, it’s still just an idea being floated – there’s no official name or launch date yet (diplomats hint a blueprint might emerge by the end of the year, possibly around the next SCO summit)timesofindia.indiatimes.com. But the very fact it’s being discussed at high levels tells us something about the shifting sands of Asian geopolitics. My take: It’s a bold gambit that shows how frustrated countries have become with the status quo. There’s a real desire for economic cooperation in South Asia – whether it’s to trade more easily or tackle shared problems like energy shortages and climate impacts. If the existing setup isn’t delivering (thanks largely to India-Pakistan mistrust), then why not try something new?
However, there are significant hurdles ahead. For one, convincing South Asian nations to sign onto a Beijing-led club openly is not easy. Many of these countries, like Bangladesh and Nepal, want both Chinese investment and Indian goodwill. They will try to avoid choosing sides for as long as possible. If India perceives this bloc as a hostile anti-India alliance, it could retaliate in subtle ways – maybe by tightening trade, or diplomatically pressuring neighbors not to join. We’ve seen hints of that pressure in Bangladesh’s quick denial of any “alliance”timesofindia.indiatimes.com. Also, any new forum would have to prove it’s more effective than SAARC, not just politically aligned. That means actual projects: highways, railways, power grids, trade deals that cut tariffs – concrete stuff that people can see and benefit from. China’s money and Pakistan’s sponsorship might kick-start some of that, but sustained cooperation needs trust among all members. Can, say, Bangladesh and Pakistan cooperate meaningfully if India isn’t in the room? Possibly, but it’s uncharted territory after decades of everyone being used to India’s presence (for better or worse).
Another big question: What about security and politics? Pakistan says this new grouping is “not a political alliance” – it’s trying to brand it as purely about trade and connectivitybusinesstoday.in. That’s smart marketing, since countries like Sri Lanka or Nepal don’t want a military pact, they want economic gains. But in reality, any bloc involving these players will have political implications. For example, if Afghanistan’s Taliban government is included (Pakistan and China have hinted at involving Afghanistanbusinesstoday.in), that itself is politically sensitive. And if the bloc collectively takes positions on issues (say, a stance on regional terrorism, or on dealing with sanctions, etc.), it could get politicized quickly.
From China’s vantage, a successful new bloc would be a diplomatic win – showcasing that Beijing can convene and lead in India’s backyard, enhancing China’s image as the new champion of developing world unity. For Pakistan, it’s a chance to break out of isolation and rebrand itself as a connector of South and Central Asia rather than a spoiler. For the smaller states, it could mean new highways, ports, and power plants – or alternatively, more debt and dependency if not handled carefully. It’s a high-risk, high-reward bet.
As politically curious citizens, we should watch these maneuvers with an open mind but a healthy dose of skepticism. South Asia has been here before – grand promises of brotherhood that fizzled out. Is this different? It might be, if only because the push is coming from outside the traditional Indo-centric model. A neutral-ish convener like China (neutral in South Asian squabbles, at least) could possibly succeed in getting everyone to the table – something India or Pakistan alone couldn’t do. But without India’s massive market and geographic centrality, any new bloc will have an elephant-sized hole.
So, what do you think? Is the Pakistan-China “new bloc” idea a needed shake-up that will finally get South Asian countries working together on trade and development? Or is it a divisive move that could deepen regional fault lines and sideline India, only to stumble against real-world constraints? The coming months should give us a clearer picture. For now, it’s a fascinating twist in the tale of South Asian cooperation – a tale that’s equal parts hope and drama. One thing’s certain: after years of stagnation, the geopolitical chessboard in South Asia is suddenly alive with moves again. Grab your popcorn (or samosas), because this regional soap opera just got a new plotline.
(This post was written in a conversational style to make complex geopolitics accessible. Informed opinions are my own, backed by the sources linked below.)
