Gulf economies war impact oil prices is no longer a side question. It sits at the centre of the current crisis. Israel appears financially capable of sustaining a long conflict. The real pressure may fall elsewhere. In the Gulf, where oil flows, capital moves, and confidence decides growth. At first glance, higher oil prices look like a windfall. The reality is more complicated. And less comfortable. Why Oil Prices React First Roughly 20% of global oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz . Any escalation in the region introduces three immediate risks: Disruption to shipping routes Higher insurance premiums for tankers Market speculation driven by uncertainty The pattern is well documented. After tanker attacks in 2019, prices rose within days. During the Ukraine war in 2022, Brent crude crossed $120 per barrel. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East would likely produce similar spikes. Short term, that helps oil exporters. Long term, it complicates everythin...
Strategic analysis on geopolitics, financial systems, and Pakistani affairs, blended with personal stories and commentary from Karachi. Written by Munaeem Jamal.