Strategic analysis on geopolitics, financial systems, and global policy from Karachi. Written by Munaeem Jamal.
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Trump vs. BRICS: Why Tariff Threats Are Fueling the Fire
Every time BRICS meets, Trump gets nervous. This time, they pushed back.
Heat. Heat.
The BRICS summit in Brazil wasn’t just a gathering of emerging economies—it was a signal. And across the ocean, one man in particular was watching closely: Donald Trump.
He didn’t wait long to strike.
“Any country aligning with the anti-American policies of BRICS will face an additional 10% tariff.”
— Donald Trump
No exceptions. Just threats.
But something felt different this time. The bloc didn’t flinch. They didn’t even name him. Instead, BRICS responded with unity—and a clear message: We’re not playing your game anymore.
The BRICS Expansion Is Bigger Than You Think
The original five—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—now have company.
Five new members joined the bloc:
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Indonesia
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Egypt
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Ethiopia
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UAE
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Iran
Together, the ten countries account for:
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Over half the world’s population
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More than 40% of global economic output
And they’re doing more than holding hands. At the summit, they condemned tariffs as a coercive tool that threatens global trade. China didn’t mince words:
“BRICS cooperation is open and inclusive—not aimed at anyone. We oppose tariff wars. Arbitrary tariffs serve no one’s interest.”
So why is Trump rattled?
De-Dollarization: The Real Threat
Trump isn’t just angry about alliances. He’s scared of what BRICS represents: the slow erosion of U.S. dollar dominance.
De-dollarization is the move to limit the use of the U.S. dollar in global trade—by shifting to other currencies or bilateral agreements.
Trump once said:
“I hate when countries go off the dollar. I would not allow countries to go off the dollar because when we lose that standard, it’s like losing a revolutionary war.”
He sees BRICS as that revolutionary force.
Trade Is Booming—Just Not With America
Ironically, Western sanctions are fueling the very trend Trump fears.
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Intra-BRICS trade jumped 40% from 2021 to 2024, hitting $740 billion in 2024 alone.
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Russia, under 20,000+ sanctions, shifted to the Chinese yuan. By mid-2024, 53% of its foreign transactions were in yuan—up from 40% three years ago.
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India imported 43% of its oil from Russia in June 2024—more than Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE combined.
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Brazil and South Africa are buying Chinese electric cars en masse. In Brazil, BYD took over a former Ford factory. In South Africa, 27+ Chinese models are now on sale.
These aren’t isolated anecdotes. They tell a bigger story:
BRICS countries are building a trade ecosystem that works without American approval—or American currency.
Forget the BRICS Currency. Watch the Bilateral Deals.
No one’s saying the dollar is dead. A BRICS-wide currency? Still a long shot. The bloc has too many internal political rifts to pull that off.
But what is working—quietly and efficiently—is bilateralism.
Deals between just two nations. Currency swaps. Oil-for-rupees. Car factories traded for influence.
That’s where BRICS shines: agility. Flexibility. One-on-one cooperation.
And that’s what scares Washington more than a photo op of ten leaders smiling in Brazil.
“This cooperation has never been, and will never be, directed against third countries,” said a Russian delegate.
“But it is about our interests.”
Trump wanted to intimidate.
Instead, he may have unified them.
what are the potential challenges of establishing a free trade zone between Russia and Africa?
Establishing a free trade zone between Russia and Africa could face several potential challenges. Here are some of them:
- Political instability in Africa: Many African countries suffer from political instability, armed conflicts, and civil wars, which can disrupt trade and investment. For example, the war in Ukraine has disrupted Africa's promising recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel prices, disrupting trade of goods and services, tightening the fiscal space, constraining green transitions, and reducing the flow of development finance in the continent.14
- Limited foreign direct investment from Russia: Russia accounts for just 1 percent of foreign direct investment into Africa, and its trade with Africa represents only 5 percent of the European Union's total trade with Africa and no more than 6 percent of China's total. This lopsided trade relationship could discourage Russia from investing more in Africa, especially in countries with high political risks.11
- Lopsided trade relationship: Africa imports five times more than it exports to Russia, which has produced a $12bn trade imbalance. Russia pledged in 2019 to double its trade with Africa in five years but has failed to achieve its target. This could lead to a situation where African countries become overly dependent on Russian imports, which could harm their domestic industries and economic development.11
- Barriers to trade with Russia: The sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries will further exacerbate commercial flows between Russia and Africa due to the closure of vital port operations in the Black Sea. This could increase the cost of trade and reduce the volume of goods exchanged between Russia and Africa. Additionally, some African countries rely heavily on critical imports from Russia, such as wheat, fertilizers, and steel. A disruption in these imports could adversely impact African countries2.14
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